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What actually happened?
Strong thunderstorms during the month of November are not uncommon in Missouri. In this example a strong low-pressure system moved from Kansas into Iowa. Two frontal boundaries passed through central Missouri overnight.

North of the warm frontal boundary, the wind was primarily from the southeast. Temperatures were in the 50's and moderate rain was falling. The warm front passed through the area around 10:00PM and the wind shifted to southwesterly. The temperature also warmed up at this time. Normally temperatures do not rise in the middle of the night, but by midnight most locations across central Missouri were in the 60's.

Just after 2:00AM the cold front brought the strongest of the storms. In Columbia, a strong tornado was produced by the storm, damaging approximately 50 houses on the south side of the city. Within the next two hours the storms moved out of the area and a strong west to northwest wind howled across the area, bringing the temperature down into the 40's by morning.

If you did not forecast the tornado in Columbia, don't be disappointed. Predicting the occurrence and location of tornadoes is very tough. Understanding the likely weather conditions that are associated with the different weather systems however should be somewhat easier.

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